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What I Am Reading

Monday, May 4, 2026

Latest Morning Briefing

Consumer spending is the single biggest driver of US GDP growth, and its remarkable resilience despite lackluster income growth contributes mightily to the resilience of the US economy broadly. Today, Ed and Elias explain why consumer spending has seemed to defy economic gravity and why it should continue to do so. The short answer: our “gen-shaped economy,” shaped by generational dynamics as the Baby Boomers move through life’s phases. As retired Boomers chip away at their massive nest eggs while not earning a paycheck, they’re keeping consumption aloft and the saving rate falling. … Also: Three other consumption tailwinds are worth noting. So is one potential risk to our optimistic spending outlook: a prolonged period of triple-digit oil prices. … And: Dr Ed reviews “Mr. Burton” (+ +).

Markets

Dow Futures Slide, Oil Jumps on Iran Claim of Strike on U.S. Navy ShipWall Street Journal
The markets are in the early stages of pricing in stagflation, this Wall Street giant findsMarketWatch
Asian Stocks Outside of Japan Hit Record High as Tech RalliesBloomberg

Credit & Currencies

Commodities

Central banks

US economy

Where College Graduates Are Getting Hired and Why the Best Career Move Might Be Heading SouthWall Street Journal

US politics

Trump officials threaten UN budget cuts as US pushes ‘trade over aid’ agendaGuardian

Europe

Europe ‘naive’ in clinging to old economic model, says central bankerFinancial Times
Germany Has the Cash to Revitalize Its Economy, but Can’t Seem to Spend ItWall Street Journal

Industries & Corporate finance

An Aluminum Crisis Is Roiling the Auto IndustryWall Street Journal
GameStop Makes $56 Billion Offer to Buy eBayWall Street Journal
American Express Global Business Travel Enters $6.3 Billion Take-Private DealWall Street Journal

Global economy

AI

Trade

UAE, Qatar seek new Gulf-Asia trade corridor in landmark agreement with South KoreaYahoo Finance
European markets open mostly positive as Trump threatens new auto tariffsCNBC
EU Trade Chief to Meet U.S.’s Greer in ParisWall Street Journal

Geopolitics

Trump Says U.S. Will Guide Stranded Ships Through Strait of HormuzWall Street Journal
US Oil Sanctions Push Beijing to Test Washington’s LimitsBloomberg

Beyond markets

The U.S. Wants to Break China’s Drone Dominance. Here’s Where It Will Struggle.Wall Street Journal

US ISM Manufacturing PMI (April 2026)

Source:Institute for Supply Management