What I Am Reading

Monday, March 2, 2026

Latest Morning Briefing

Another Regime Alteration

Saturday’s military attack on Iran by the US and Israel that killed Iran’s leader and 40 top officials is likely to push oil prices higher this week. However, in our short-war scenario, oil prices should fall in the coming weeks after a ceasefire. In any event, the attack also incapacitated Iran’s navy, so the threat of a blocked Strait of Hormuz has been greatly reduced. This is potentially a positive development from economic and investment perspectives, greatly reducing geopolitical risk in the Middle East once the war ends. If oil prices drop in the coming weeks following a ceasefire, US inflation and gasoline prices will decline, boosting US consumer spending and benefiting global economies and stock markets. The weekend’s Middle East developments make us even more confident in our Roaring 2020s scenario. … Also: Dr Ed reviews “Mercy” (+).

Markets I

Markets II

Commodities

Oil Prices Surge as Hormuz Disruptions Threaten Global SupplyBloomberg
Iran strikes stall traffic in Strait of Hormuz, rattling world marketsWashington Post
Gas Prices Surge as Qatar Shuts World's Largest LNG Export PlantBloomberg

Geopolitics

AI

Corporate finance

They Built Blue Owl, Wall Street’s Hottest Firm. Now They Have to Save It.Wall Street Journal

Beyond markets

America’s states should beware of copying Europe too muchEconomist