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Monday, December 15, 2025

Latest Morning Briefing

Game Of Thrones: The Mag-7 & The Fed

It has all the drama of “Game of Thrones”: The Magnificent-7 kingdoms, each surrounded by moats, rarely had threatened each other’s monopolies in the past. Now, with the advent of AI, they have been encroaching on each other’s previously sacrosanct fiefdoms, forcing one another to spend ever more to remain in the game. Amid the chaotic disruption, investors’ AI euphoria has given way to AI agita as confidence in the Mag-7 ebbs. Are their earnings inflated by accounting? Will returns justify their capital investments? Our take: AI will have a powerful impact on productivity in the economy. The winners may not be among the Mag-7 at all but the S&P 500’s Impressive 493 and the economy at large. … Today, Dr Ed enlists the help of Google’s Gemini AI assistant to extend the “Game of Thrones” metaphor to this disruption as well as the transition in the Fed’s Iron Throne. … Also: Dr Ed reviews “Task” (+).

Markets

Stocks Waver as Bond Yields FallBloomberg
Heard on the Street recap: Tech fears are backWall Street Journal
Bitcoin slips below $90,000; what could spark a reboundBarron's
Gold bolstered by U.S. rate-cut prospects and haven demandBarron's

Central Banks

Bond-market debate over the Fed's 2026 path heats upBloomberg
For banks, the Fed's next balance-sheet moves may matter more than rate cutsWall Street Journal
After the Fed, this week is a central-bank bonanzaWall Street Journal
BoE set to cut rates to 3.75% as data ease inflation concernsFinancial Times
BoJ report signaling wage growth adds more rate-hike fuelWall Street Journal

US Economy

Investors likely won't get clear reads on the economy until January, given shutdown-delayed dataFinancial Times
New York factory activity unexpectedly contracts on shipments declineWall Street Journal
What's really going on in the job market? Tuesday will tell us moreWall Street Journal

US Politics

MAGA leaders warn Trump the base is checking out amid cost-of-living angstWashington Post
Donald Trump's affordability crisisFinancial Times

China

China’s Economy Is Deteriorating on Several FrontsWall Street Journal
China investment decline deepens as Xi attacks 'reckless' spending; retail sales weakest since 2022Financial Times
Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com slump after data and Xi's warning spook marketsBarron's

Industries & companies

Autos:Trump’s Surprise Answer to Vehicle Affordability: ‘Cute’ Tiny CarsWall Street Journal
Media:The Holidays Came Early This Year, at Least for AdvertisersWall Street Journal

Geopolitics & trade

EU's von der Leyen and NATO's Rutte join Ukraine talks in BerlinReuters
Germany unveils 10-point plan to deepen defense ties with UkraineReuters
Why Germany Wants a Divorce With ChinaWall Street Journal
Why Everyone Got Trump’s Tariffs WrongWall Street Journal

AI

CEOs to Keep Spending on AI, Despite Spotty ReturnsWall Street Journal
Four New Jobs That May Be in Our AI FutureWall Street Journal

Corporate Finance

These stocks are moving today: iRobot bankruptcy dominates pre-marketBarron's

Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4 2025)

Bank of Japan.

China Industrial Production, y/y (November 2025)

National Bureau of Statistics of China

China Retail Sales, y/y (November 2025)

National Bureau of Statistics of China