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What I Am Reading

Wednesday, November 12, 2025

Latest Morning Briefing

On China, Financial Stability & S&P 500 Earnings

Hopes that China’s deflation problem is ending are premature, William reports. He explains why deflation remains a clear and present danger to China’s economy, and one that’s exportable to its trading partners. … Also: The Fed’s latest Financial Stability Report depicts a reassuringly resilient financial system. Melissa recaps the report’s main points, including its positive assessments in four main risk categories. … And: Joe reports that six months of improved net earnings revisions data suggest a trend reversal from years of negative readings to positive ones. Historically, such speedy reversals have led to positive readings for the next two years. This supports the S&P 500’s recent recovery to a record high.

Markets

Global stocks rally on U.S. shutdown relief; traders watch the yenReuters
Why to treat the stock rally with skepticismBloomberg
European stocks hit records, banks leadWall Street Journal

Credit

Corporate bonds emerging as new "safe haven" vs. sovereignsBloomberg
Private companies increasingly handed to lenders as liabilities mountBloomberg
Private credit drives fundraising at mega managersWall Street Journal

Commodities

Central Banks

Fed officials increasingly split over a December cutWall Street Journal
NY Fed's Williams: bond buys may resume for liquidity managementReuters
ECB's Schnabel: policy rate "in a good place"Wall Street Journal
PBOC vows to keep policy accommodative, liquidity ampleReuters
Lagarde to chair two key BIS committees, succeeding PowellReuters

US Economy

End of shutdown won't quickly clear the data fogReuters
Economists on measuring the shutdown's hitWall Street Journal

Europe

ECB hikes hit poorer households harder, staff research findsWall Street Journal

Japan

PM Takaichi pushes wage-driven inflation; bigger stimulus flaggedReuters

Geopolitics & Trade

U.S. chip curbs are biting in China's AI ecosystemWall Street Journal
Russia signals readiness to resume Ukraine talks in IstanbulReuters
What the looming fall of Pokrovsk says about Putin's war aimsWall Street Journal

AI