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Monday, November 10, 2025

Latest Morning Briefing

Geniuses Of Stablecoin

Now that the GENIUS Act has established a framework for stablecoin issuance with safeguards for consumers, we expect stablecoin usage to proliferate. Because stablecoins are backed by liquid assets such as Treasury bills, their proliferation is likely to affect bond market dynamics. Because stablecoins can be used for transactions, they’re likely to shrink the markets for other cryptocurrencies that can’t be, like bitcoin. Because stablecoins are a new M1 component, they’re likely to reduce the Fed’s control over the money supply. How stablecoin’s uptake will alter monetary policy, interest rates, and the federal debt is hard to predict. Stephen Miran theorizes that stablecoin proliferation will lower the neutral interest rate, requiring the Fed to ease accordingly. We aren’t convinced. ... Also: Dr Ed reviews “House of Guinness” (+ + +).

Markets

Credit & commodities

Fear Is Coming Back to the Junk Bond MarketBloomberg
Oil Edges Higher Amid Range-Bound TradingWall Street Journal

Central banks

BOJ saw growing case for near-term rate hike, October meeting summary showsReuters

US economy

Feeling Great About the Economy? You Must Own StocksWall Street Journal
Jobs Are Disappearing Fast. These Stocks Are Getting DefensiveBarron's

US politics

Senate Clears Key Hurdle Toward Ending Government ShutdownWall Street Journal
Trump’s Power Looks to Be Slipping. What to Expect.Barron's
Trump Suggests $2,000 Payouts to Americans as He Defends TariffsWall Street Journal
Trump’s Tax Cuts Are Exposing Companies to Biden’s Tax HikeWall Street Journal

Europe

Investors are telling Britain to cheer up a bitEconomist

China

China’s Stocks are Flying as Beijing Doubles Down on Tech. Why the Economy Is Still Struggling.Barron's

India

What explains India's peculiar stability?Economist

Emerging markets

Rare inflation flip gives EMs an edgeBloomberg

AI & technology

Wearable Tech Takes a Leap Forward With AIWall Street Journal
AI will lead one in four big UK firms to cut staffingFinancial Times
How Much of Silicon Valley Is Built on Chinese AI?Bloomberg
Apple’s iPhone Air Sales DisappointWall Street Journal

Geopolitics & trade

The Nord Stream Investigation That’s Splintering Europe Over UkraineWall Street Journal
Ukraine drone strike disrupts utilities in Russia's VoronezhBloomberg
China export curbs carve exceptions for European chip flowWall Street Journal

Crypto

The Year’s Hottest Crypto Trade Is CrumblingWall Street Journal