What I Am Reading

Monday, June 9, 2025

Latest Morning Briefing

Americans Are Still Working For A Living

Over the past three and a half years, the US economy has defied the recession expectations of many, remaining uncommonly resilient in the face of stress tests including Fed tightening, an oil price spike, and most recently Trump’s Tariff Turmoil. The economy’s strength despite these formidable challenges supports our base-case Roaring 2020s scenario (to which we assign 75% odds) and our still bullish S&P 500 targets. … A big reason for the economy’s impressive resilience is that the labor market has remained impressively resilient. Americans are working, secure in their prospects to keep working, so their spending hasn’t been slowed by tariff-related uncertainties. … Also: Notably not working is the protagonist of Dr Ed’s latest movie review, “Your Friends & Neighbors” (+).

Markets

Stock Funds Roared to a 6% Gain in MayWall Street Journal
How to Invest When Everything Yields the SameWall Street Journal
Get Ready for Inflation to Matter in Markets AgainWall Street Journal
It’s Not Just Tariffs. A Declining Dollar Will Raise Inflation.Barron's
Why investors lack a theory of everythingEconomist

Central Banks

Trade & Tariffs

Europe Finds Itself in Trump’s Good Books—for NowWall Street Journal
US and China set for trade talks in London on MondayReuters
Export Controls to Take Center Stage at U.S.-China Trade TalksWall Street Journal

US

Geopolitics & trade

Will Trump Take ‘No’ for an Answer?Wall Street Journal
US believes Russia response to Ukraine drone attack not over yetReuters
Putin unleashes a summer offensive to break UkraineEconomist

Technology & AI

Broadcom’s AI Bonanza Has LimitsWall Street Journal
The Missing EngineersBloomberg