What I Am Reading

Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Latest Morning Briefing

On The Dollar, The Debt & Earnings

Investors can dismiss worries that the US dollar’s weakness presages an emerging-market-style crisis. That’s impossible for the US. Foreign investors need dollars to invest in US assets, which retain their clear advantage in attracting investment capital. We attribute the recent dollar weakness to the strong euro and devaluation of high-P/E Mag-7 stocks, which foreign investors shed amid Trump Tariff Turmoil. … Also: Melissa discusses expectations for the House’s tax reconciliation package that should stop Trump 1.0’s tax cuts from expiring this year—which won’t come cheap. … And: Joe reports that tariff-related uncertainties are reflected in analysts’ estimate revisions, skewed uncharacteristically downward despite strong Q1s.

Markets

Commodities

Annual gold price forecast tops $3,000 for first time: Reuters pollReuters
U.S. Crude Oil Stockpiles Post Unexpected DeclineWall Street Journal

Central banks

Fed seen cutting policy rate by a full percentage point this yearReuters

Tariffs

Trump eases auto tariffs burden as Lutnick touts first foreign trade dealReuters
What's in Trump's move to ease US automotive tariffsReuters
China creates list of US-made goods exempt from 125% tariffs, sources sayReuters
Trump vs. Amazon’s Brilliant Tariff IdeaWall Street Journal

US

Europe

France’s Economy Struggles to Grow as Tariffs Threaten Fresh DragWall Street Journal

Industries & companies

Pharma:GLP-1s can help employers lower medical costs in 2 years: studyCNBC

Geopolitics & trade

Ukraine, U.S. Close In on Controversial Economic Deal for MineralsWall Street Journal
Inside the U.S. battle with China over an island paradise deep in the PacificReuters
China’s Export Orders Plunge, Hit by Trump’s Trade WarWall Street Journal

Technology

I Recorded Everything I Said for Three Months. AI Has Replaced My Memory.Wall Street Journal