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Monday, November 18, 2024

Latest Morning Briefing

Trumped

The US Constitution was designed to promote gridlock. But the benefits of gridlock are undermined by lawmakers’ spending freely because the Constitution lacks a balanced budget requirement. … Gridlock is good for investing, but the stock market tends to do well no matter who is in the White House. Trump’s proposals—representing a radical change from Biden’s policies—are likely to materialize because he won a clean sweep. Today, Dr Ed examines their ramifications for financial markets. In the “cons” column: Trump’s trade policies and expansion of the federal budget deficit. In the “pros” column: his corporate tax cuts and deregulation plans. Also, we think the inflationary impacts of Trump’s policies could be offset by low energy prices. His deportations might be similar in scale to previous administrations’.

Markets

Commodities

Goldman Says ‘Go for Gold’ as Central Banks Buy, Fed Cuts in ‘25Bloomberg
The outlook for gold — as the granddaddy of gold ETFs turns 20CNBC
Oil prices tick higher as Russia-Ukraine tensions escalateReuters
Why Big Oil Doesn’t Mind Big RegulationWall Street Journal

Central banks

Global

What’s about to hit the world economy?Economist

Central banks

Powell May Be Waiting Until 2026 for Housing Inflation to CoolBloomberg
BOJ Governor Sticks to Stance on More Rate HikesWall Street Journal
India Finance Minister Says Bank Rates Should Be More AffordableBloomberg

US politics

A Trump U.S. Energy RenaissanceWall Street Journal
The DOGE Cheat SheetWall Street Journal
Trump's Treasury Secretary Contest Latest: Bessent Spoke With MuskBloomberg
The Democrats Made RFK Jr.Wall Street Journal
Matt Gaetz’s nomination to be attorney-general is an ill omenEconomist
How a Real Estate Mogul Became Trump’s Mid East ManWall Street Journal
How Joe Biden’s Gamble on Inflation BackfiredWall Street Journal

US

These Baby-Chasing Grandparents Are Turbocharging Demographic ShiftsWall Street Journal

China

China should not wait to stimulate its economyEconomist

Europe

Eurozone Trade Surplus Rises on Jump in Exports to U.S.Wall Street Journal
The sun begins to set on Olaf Scholz’s chancellorshipEconomist

Mexico

Sheinbaum Keeps Moving Mexico LeftWall Street Journal

Geopolitics & trade

Industries & companies

Autos:What a Trump Presidency May Mean for the Auto IndustryWall Street Journal
Energy:Three Mile Island nuclear turning point as Big Tech influence growsCNBC
Media:Jake Paul, Mike Tyson fight breaks record, Netflix saysCNBC

Corporate finance

Spirit Airlines files for bankruptcy protection after mounting lossesCNBC

Artificial Intelligence

AI Investments Are Booming, but Venture-Firm Profits Are at a Historic LowWall Street Journal
Nvidia Is Now the King of AI.Barron's