What I Am Reading

Monday, October 28, 2024

Latest Morning Briefing

Valuation In A Resilient Economy

Goldman Sachs’ bold projection that the next 10 years may be a “lost decade” for stocks, with mere 3% annual returns, is unlikely in the extreme, says Dr Ed. It seems to rest on the assumption that valuations in the future will be lower than today’s. Even without expanding valuation multiples, earnings growth would likely boost the S&P 500 price index at a pace that’s at least twice Goldman’s projection, and returns would be more like 11% a year including reinvested dividends. Furthermore, in our Roaring 2020s economic scenario, earnings growth and valuation—and the index’s appreciation potential—would be even greater than that, driven by a technology-led productivity boom. … Also: Dr Ed reviews “Monsters (+ + +).

Markets I

Markets II

Credit

Central banks

Where Will Rates End Up? The Magic Number.Barron's
Europe's return to zero rates?Reuters
ECB’s Lagarde Says Trade Barriers Could Revive InflationWall Street Journal

US

This Year’s Housing Turnaround Ended Before It StartedWall Street Journal
The IMF Joins the Anti-Trump CauseWall Street Journal

China

China Sets Date for Key Meeting at Center of Market’s Stimulus HopesWall Street Journal

Japan

Geopolitics & trade

Iran plays down Israel's strikes, says they caused 'limited damage'CNBC
Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping meet and resolve a border rowEconomist
North Korean Soldiers Arrive on Russia’s Front Line.Wall Street Journal
How a Trump Victory Would Threaten Tesla’s Success in ChinaWall Street Journal

Industries & companies

Pharma:It’s not just obesity. Drugs like Ozempic will change the worldEconomist