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What I Am Reading

Monday, August 26, 2024

Latest Morning Briefing

Powell’s Latest Pivot Won’t Be His Last

It was an unambiguously dovish Fed Chair Powell who described the Fed’s intentions for US monetary policy at the Jackson Hole gathering of global central bankers on Friday. In our opinion, he was too dovish for this point in the economic cycle. After all, successful execution of the Fed’s dual mandate basically has been achieved: Inflation is headed on autopilot down to the 2.0% target (thanks to solid productivity gains) and unemployment remains low. Why tamper with success? Powell’s pivot to dovishness assured the financial markets that they were right to expect more easing after the widely anticipated September rate cut. But if the labor market remains resilient or inflation reheats, Powell likely will have to pivot again. … And Dr. Ed favorably reviews “Young Woman And The Sea” (+++).

Markets

Central banks

At Jackson Hole, Powell Hopes He Hasn’t Waited Too Long to Cut RatesBarron's

Commodities

US

America’s recession signals are flashing red. Don’t believe themEconomist
Inflation Usually Hits Harder for Poor Families. For a Couple of Years, It Didn’t.Wall Street Journal
What to make of America’s topsy-turvy economyEconomist
How High Home Insurance Costs Threaten Affordable HousingNew York Times

US politics

Kamala Harris’s cost-of-living plan will end in failureEconomist
What a President Kamala Harris Could Mean for the Economy, Markets, Taxes, and MoreBarron's
Kamala Harris Is Proposing a $6,000 Baby Bonus. Would It Make a Difference?Wall Street Journal

China

China’s Youth Burnout and Lack of Jobs. Things Are Worse Than Ever.Barron's

Geopolitics & trade

Israel Sends 100 Jet Fighters to Hit Lebanon in Pre-Emptive StrikeWall Street Journal
If a China and America war went nuclear, who would win?Economist
China’s rulers are surprised by Kamala Harris and Tim WalzEconomist
In Beijing’s Quest for Control of the South China Sea, a New Flashpoint EmergesWall Street Journal
China slams U.S. for adding firms to export control list, vows actionCNBC

Industries & companies

Aerospace:Boeing Starliner returning empty, NASA to use SpaceX to get astronautsCNBC
Autos:The Electric Vehicle Transition That Isn’tWall Street Journal
Industrials:8 Industrial Stocks With Attractive DividendsBarron's

Technology

How hydrogen could change the future of space explorationCNBC

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence is losing hypeEconomist
Regulators are focusing on real AI risks over theoretical ones. GoodEconomist
AI needs regulation, but what kind, and how much?Economist

Beyond markets