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What I Am Reading

Monday, December 11, 2023

Latest Morning Briefing

Hard Luck For Hard Landers

The economy has proven resilient, defying all the reasons it shouldn’t be, to which diehard hard landers still cling. We expect that it will remain resilient and that inflation will continue to fall to the Fed’s target (a.k.a. “immaculate disinflation”). In this scenario, the Fed won’t be rushing to ease and won’t ease by much. The Fed’s policy stance is perhaps better cast as “normalizing” than tightening that requires undoing. … Labor market supply and demand are coming into better balance, as the Fed would like, though November employment data attest to the labor market’s continued strength. … Also: What to make of the fact that GDI is weaker than GDP. … And: Dr. Ed reviews “Reptile” (+). YRI Daily Markets Overview

Markets

A New Era of Income Investing Is Turning Boomers Into Bond BuyersWall Street Journal
Why Treasury Auctions Have Wall Street on EdgeWall Street Journal

Central banks

Higher Interest Rates Are Here to Stay. What It Means for the Economy.Barron's
Jerome Powell’s Inflation Fight Is Succeeding, Raising Questions About Rate CutsWall Street Journal

US

Inflation expectations plunge in closely watched University of Michigan surveyCNBC
Here’s Where Prices Are Actually Coming DownWall Street Journal
Runway getting clearer, U.S. economy still not assured of soft landingCNBC
Economy’s Soft Landing Comes Into View as Job Growth Slowly DescendsWall Street Journal
Opinion | The Progressive Case for BidenomicsNew York Times
The Megafactories Are Coming. Now the Hustle Is On to Find WorkersWall Street Journal

Europe

China

Will China leave behind its economic woes in 2024?Economist

Japan

Will a fiscal mess thwart Japan’s nascent economic growth?Economist

Industries & companies

Autos:Auto Loan Rejections at Record High — How to Up the Odds of ApprovalCNBC
Banks:A Bank Safety ‘Endgame’ Is Coming. Who Wins and Loses.Barron's
Health Care:Buy This Hospital Stock. It’s Making the Best of a Bad Situation.Barron's

Geopolitics & trade

Corporate finance

Cigna abandons pursuit of Humana, plans $10 billion share buybackReuters
Investor Group Launches $5.8 Billion Buyout Bid for Macy’sWall Street Journal
Sigma Healthcare Agrees to $5.79 Billion Merger With Pharmacy ChainWall Street Journal

Climate

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial: The OpenAI StoryWall Street Journal

Beyond markets