What I Am Reading

Tuesday, October 3, 2023

Latest Morning Briefing

The Bond Vigilantes Are On The March

What moves the bond market has changed recently and disconcertingly. The 10-year Treasury bond yield’s recent action—and nonreaction to economic news that typically moves it—suggest a shift in bond investors’ focus from what monetary policymakers may do to rising alarm about what fiscal policymakers are doing. The worry is that the escalating federal budget deficit will create more supply of bonds than demand can meet, requiring higher yields to clear the market; that worry has been the Bond Vigilantes’ entrance cue. Now the Wild Bunch seems to have taken full control of the Treasury market; we’re watching to see if the high-yield market is next. We are still counting on moderating inflation to stop the beatings in the bond market. YRI Daily Markets Overview

Markets

Dow Falls 500 Points; Meta, VinFast Stocks in FocusWall Street Journal
Wall St dives as jobs data fans rate worries, Treasury yields spikeReuters
U.S. Treasury yields: investors weigh economic outlookCNBC
Why a rout in government bonds is worryingReuters

Central banks

The Fed Seeks to Up Its Influencer StatusWall Street Journal
Steady Economy Could Warrant November Rate Hike, Fed’s Mester SaysBloomberg
When Will the Fed Stop Raising Rates? That’s the Trillion-Dollar Question for Bond InvestorsWall Street Journal

US

Mortgage rate heads toward 8%CNBC
Wall Street Thinks America’s Homes Are OvervaluedWall Street Journal
August job openings top 9.6 million, more than expected as labor market remains strongCNBC
Americans’ Growing Reluctance to Quit Their Jobs, in Five ChartsWall Street Journal
Despite Economic Risks, Companies Are Hanging On to the Workers They HaveWall Street Journal
Millennials on Better Track for Retirement Than Boomers and Gen XWall Street Journal

Geopolitics & trade

Dalio says China-US relations are 'on the brink of red lines'Reuters

Industries & companies

Consumer discretionary:Amazon Used Secret ‘Project Nessie’ Algorithm to Raise PricesWall Street Journal
Media:Netflix plans to raise prices after actors' strike ends | WReuters

Artificial Intelligence

Hedge Funds Struggle to Beat the Market With AI Stock BetsBloomberg
CIOs Feel Heat From CEOs on Generative AIWall Street Journal
AI and job losses: How worried should we be?FOX