What I Am Reading

Tuesday, September 26, 2023

Latest Morning Briefing

Is Powell’s Path Forward Widening Or Narrowing?

The Fed has paused its rate hiking for now but not without warning that resumed tightening is possible. Either way, monetary policy will be kept restrictive for longer than investors previously expected, Fed Chair Powell has said. What does that scenario imply for the economic outlook? Peaks in the federal funds rate are coincident indicators of financial crises caused by restrictive policy, which often trigger credit crunches and recessions. That’s the big risk of the Fed’s higher-for-longer rate path. ... We don’t expect that scenario—we’re in the soft-landing camp—but were it to occur, the highly leveraged commercial real estate market might be the epicenter of the financial crisis. YRI Daily Markets Overview

Markets

Wall St declines as rate worries keep Treasury yields elevatedReuters
Bond Traders Roiled by Fed See US Shutdown as Next Big Wild CardBloomberg
$100 Oil Needs Western Drills to Stay QuietWall Street Journal

Central banks

The elusive Fed 'soft landing' nears. Why are Americans so mad about the economy?Reuters
Americans Finally Start to Feel the Sting From the Fed’s Rate HikesWall Street Journal
Government Shutdown Would Blindfold Fed in Piloting Course on RatesWall Street Journal

US I

US consumer confidence ebbs in SeptemberReuters
US Home Prices Rise to Record High as Market Bounces BackBloomberg
US new home sales tumble in AugustReuters
Florida Tops New York as Second-Biggest US Housing Market, Zillow SaysBloomberg
How Much Savings Do Americans Have Left, Anyway?Wall Street Journal

US II

China

China’s Business Environment Is Deteriorating, U.S. Companies SayWall Street Journal
China powers global aluminium output to record high: Andy HomeReuters

Industries & companies

Autos:Ford Tried to Sell the Electric Mustang to China the Tesla Way—It Didn’t WorkWall Street Journal
Commercial Real Estate:Commercial Real Estate’s Next Big Headache: Spiraling Insurance CostsWall Street Journal
Materials:US thermal coal exports jump to 5-year highs on Asian demand: MaguireReuters
Media:Taylor Swift's 'The Eras Tour’ concert film set for global theatrical releaseCNBC
Pharma:The Big Pharma Stock Trade: Weight Loss Is In, Covid-19 Is OutWall Street Journal
Retail:Organized retail crime and theft not increasing much, NRF study findsCNBC

Artificial Intelligence

You Can Now Talk With ChatGPT and It Sounds Like a Human (Pretty Much)Wall Street Journal