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Monday, November 7, 2022

Latest Morning Briefing

Powell Is From Mars, Brainard Is From Venus

Has the stock market been voting early? It‘s up 5% since the S&P 500’s October 12 bottom—which may turn out to be the bear market’s ultimate bottom. Tomorrow’s midterm elections may further boost stock prices in coming months if history is a guide. Our soft-landing economic outlook, if it pans out (60% subjective odds), may be another wind at the stock market’s back. … A headwind last week was Fed Chair Powell’s peak hawkishness, but we expect to hear counterbalancing views from other Fed officials now that their quiet period is over. … Much now—both the economic and financial market outlooks—hinges on inflation reports in coming months. ... On inflation, Brainard makes sense. ... And: Dr. Ed reviews “Don’t Worry Darling” (+ +). YRI Daily Markets Overview

Energy

Mild autumn weather has sent European gas prices plummetingEconomist
Frackers Say Oil Production Slowing in the Shale PatchWall Street Journal

Central banks

Housing-Price Inflation Is a Problem. The Federal Reserve Can’t Solve It.Barron's

US

Elevated Inflation Presents Risk to U.S. Economy, Fed Report FindsWall Street Journal
Why the October Jobs Report Is So Strong Despite Tech LayoffsWall Street Journal
Midterm Election Campaigning Intensifies Across U.S. in Closing DaysWall Street Journal

China

Japan

Japan’s bond-market peg could snapEconomist

Geopolitics & trade

Senior White House Official Involved in Undisclosed Talks With Top Putin AidesWall Street Journal
Ukraine warns of more Russian attacks on energy infrastructureReuters
Who wins from the unravelling of Sino-American trade?Economist

Industries & companies

Communications Services:Meta could begin large-scale layoffs this week, report saysCNBC
Media:Twitter Is Elon Musk’s Biggest Test—and Tesla’s Biggest Challenge. How They’ll Make It Work.Barron's
Retail:Inflation, Recession Fears Have Some Holiday Shoppers Trading DownWall Street Journal
Tech:Apple warns Covid restrictions in China are hurting iPhone productionCNBC

Climate