What I Am Reading

Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Latest Morning Briefing

The Recession Question: Raising the Odds to 40%

Might the only recession we have to fear be one triggered by recession fear itself? It’s possible that we could talk ourselves into one. So while we still expect the economy to grow through the end of next year, we are raising the odds we assign to a recession scenario from 30% to 40%. That lowers our stock-market sights for this year and next. … We have new estimates for S&P 500 revenues, earnings, profit margins, P/Es, and price targets, which we still see at a new high late next year. … Also, we explain what has caused recessions in the past and why we don’t see those dynamics developing now. We’re far from alone in our optimism: Analysts keep raising their earnings estimates, and insider buying has been on fire.

Markets

Central banks

Fed Searches for the Magic Number to Cool a Red-Hot U.S. Housing MarketWall Street Journal

Global & food

Inflation, Rising Rates Curb Global Economic GrowthWall Street Journal
Food crisis fuels fears of protectionism compounding shortagesReuters

US

Industries & companies

Autos:Electric vehicles are in short supply. Here’s what you can find as gas prices soarCNBC
Tech:Tech Stocks Continue to Fall After Snap’s Profit WarningWall Street Journal

Markets

Central banks

Global & food

US

Industries & companies

Geopolitics & trade