We are downgrading the “Go Global” portfolio strategy from overweight to market weight and raising “Stay Home” (in the US) from underweight to market weight.
Overseas earnings remain impressive, but the rallies in emerging market economies’ stock markets have been led by just a handful of AI-related stocks. Last week's rout in South Korea showed how vulnerable such concentration leaves these stock markets. Additionally, European economies look set to struggle as France's fiscal problems loom, and China's economy depends almost entirely on exports. Plus, the Middle East war could flare up again before or after the US midterm elections on November 3, keeping oil prices, inflation, and interest rates elevated.
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