Proceed With Caution

I. Lowering S&P 500 Target

On Saturday, we lowered the subjective odds of our Roaring 2020s base-case scenario from 80% to 70%. We raised the odds of a bearish outcome from 20% to 30%. Today, we are moving our S&P 500 target of 8,400 for year-end to mid-2027. Our new target for the end of 2026 is 7,900. Our end-of-decade target remains at 10,000.