ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 7-11

August payroll employment jumped 162,000, a sharp reversal from July's decline, while the August unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. Those numbers reinforce our view that the labor market remains solid, so the Fed has little reason to delay a rate hike. The federal funds futures market now prices a 59% chance of a hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, up from roughly 50/50 before the employment report, with room to move either way once fresh data lands.

This week, attention turns to inflation, with August's PPI (Thu) and CPI (Fri) coming out. Overseas, China's CPI and PPI (Wed) and the European Central Bank's (ECB) meeting (Thu) top the international agenda. We will also see earnings reports from Oracle and Adobe (Thu).