ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 31 - September 4

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday was hawkish. He declined to offer forward guidance, saying he's "committed to a discipline, not a decision." He said this summer's better-than-expected inflation prints don't yet show that underlying trends have meaningfully improved, and that he'd be "hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as 'restrictive.'"

Federal funds rate futures now imply 2.4 rate increases over the next 12 months, up from 1.8 a week earlier, with odds of a September hike rising to about 60% from 35% (chart). Fedspeak continues this week, with Governor Barr (Tue) and Governor Waller (Thu) likely to weigh in on the issues discussed by Warsh.