Peak Fear? Peak Yields? Peak Earnings? Peak AI?

The answers are: Yes, Maybe, No, and No.

We have nothing to fear but nothing to fear. The stock market likes to climb a wall of worry. So too much optimism tends to be bearish, while too much pessimism tends to be bullish. Fortunately, there is plenty to fear these days. Indeed, in a recent LinkedIn post, billionaire Ray Dalio reiterated that recent events confirm that the US is on course for a debt crisis. Jeremy Grantham shares Dalio's deep pessimism, but his primary thesis focuses on an equity valuation "super-bubble" rather than an explicit sovereign debt crisis. Grantham believes the stock market is in the late stages of a historic bubble driven by AI exuberance, which he compares to the 1929 crash, the 2000 dot-com bubble, and the 1840s railroad mania.