Updating The Worry List

The S&P 500 hit yet another record high yesterday, led by fabulous earnings momentum (FEMO). That puts the index closer to our year-end target of 8,250 and 10,000 by the end of the decade. The economy has been growing without a recession since the Great Financial Crisis, except for the two-month lockdown recession in 2020. Our Roaring 2020s scenario is in its seventh year. Lots has gone wrong since the start of the decade, yet here we are with real GDP and the S&P 500 at record highs.

What could possibly go wrong as we look toward the end of the decade and the beginning of the new one? Lots could go wrong, yet the economy and stock market are likely to continue to pass future stress tests over the remainder of the decade as they have since the start of the decade.