GLOBAL MARKET CALL: War & Peace & War

In our March 4, 2026 QuickTakes, we wrote that the war between the US and Iran might last longer than widely expected. We suggested that any peace deal with Iran's government would effectively be vetoed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps simply by their threatening to attack ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz. "These terrorists are likely to be hard to eradicate with just air power," we wrote.

The IRGC remains in control of the war. They fired at ships in the Strait in recent days, violating the interim US-Iran agreement signed last month that aimed to reopen the Strait and end the ​war after a further 60 days of negotiations. So the war has re-escalated.