ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 15-19

The week ahead is dominated by the Fed. Kevin Warsh delivers his first press conference as Fed chair on Wednesday, right after the FOMC releases its policy statement and its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which includes the Dot Plot showing meeting participants’ forecasts for the federal funds rate. We expect the Fed to abandon its easing bias and pivot toward a tightening bias.

The ECB raised its official rate by 25bps last week (chart). The Bank of Japan is set to lift its short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00% on Tuesday, the highest level since 1995. The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England round out the global central bank docket, though no rate changes are expected.