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The bull case for the stock market remains intact. The S&P 500 rose to yet another record high today. The economy and the labor market remain resilient. Consumers are spending. The AI boom is boosting capital spending. Corporate earnings are soaring on strong revenues growth and higher profit margins. The odds of a recession in 2026 fell to 19% today, the lowest reading of the year (chart). Stock prices are rising on FEMO (fabulous earnings momentum) rather than FOMO.
We have been steadfastly bullish during the first seven years of our Roaring 2020s thesis. We still project the S&P 500 will rise over the final three years of the decade to 10,000. The fundamentals continue to support our stance. But a disciplined bull monitors the risks. Here are the ones we're watching:
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