Leaders, Laggards & Breadth In The Current Bull Market

The current bull market didn't start on March 31, 2026. Yet many commentators have noted that the bull market is at risk because it has been so narrow since then. The bull market actually started on October 12, 2022. Since then, most market segments have delivered solid double-digit gains. The problem is that several large-cap technology companies have delivered triple-digit gains, thereby making the double-digit growers appear to be underperformers. Nevertheless, even without the outperformers, it would still have been a solid bull market since October 12, 2022.

The outperformers have been mostly associated with the AI theme. Shortly after the bear market ended in October 2022, ChatGPT was introduced in late November 2022. The Magnificent-7 led the initial exuberance about AI, but along the way, semiconductor-related stocks soared too. That's where most of the triple-digit gains have occurred. However, investors hope that AI will lead to widespread improvements in productivity and earnings growth. We think that this is starting to happen. If so, then the bull market should broaden and continue. That is the key assumption behind our S&P 500 target of 10,000 by the end of the decade.