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During 2021 and 2022, a wage-price spiral was exacerbated by widespread global supply chain disruptions and a spike in oil prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine (charts). This time, the war in the Middle East has caused oil prices to spike. Some supply chains have been disrupted. But a wage-price spiral is less likely.
The labor market is in equilibrium this time (chart). In 2021-22, demand for labor significantly exceeded the supply of labor. So, wage inflation should remain much more moderate this time than it was back then (chart).
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