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Tomorrow night at 8:00 p.m. is the deadline by which Iran must accept President Donald Trump's ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face a US attack on its power plants and bridges. There is no way to predict the outcome. We can't rule out that Iran will cave in. Or, Trump may postpone the deadline again, explaining that negotiations are making progress. Or the war will escalate. The fog of war remains thick.
Nevertheless, we expect that one way or another, Trump will declare victory in two to three weeks. If so, then the US economy should continue to grow, with a brief period of higher inflation. That's the initial verdict of the March national Purchasing Managers Indexes for both the manufacturing (M-PMI) and non-manufacturing (NM-PMI) sectors of the economy. Consider the following:
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