ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 30-April 3

This week will continue to be dominated by developments in the Middle East. On Friday, the US and Israel struck Iranian nuclear and steel facilities, with Iran retaliating across the Persian Gulf, while President Trump pushed back a deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face further attacks on its power infrastructure. The escalation marked a sharp shift in tone from earlier in the week, when the financial markets had stabilized following Trump’s walk-back of threats targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure.

Oil markets have responded accordingly. WTI crude closed at $99.64 a barrel, up roughly 18.7% from Tuesday’s low of $83.96 and marking its highest weekly close since the conflict began, while Brent finished at $112.57, up about 16.6% from its weekly low of $96.52 (chart). The speed and magnitude of the move underscore how quickly energy markets are repricing geopolitical risk, challenging earlier efforts to keep both oil and bond markets anchored, and reinforcing the risk of sustained disruption in the Strait.