ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: March 23-27

The week ahead is all about oil prices. As the Iran war enters its fourth week, the soaring price of crude has rapidly upended economic forecasts and shifted expectations for central bank policy.

Nowhere more so than at the Fed. In barely a week, bond traders have swung from expecting rate cuts to pricing in roughly a 50% probability of a tightening move by October. In Europe, the financial markets are now pricing in as many as three ECB rate hikes by year-end. The growing risk of a protracted Middle East conflict has put global monetary policy hawks firmly back in the ascendancy.