Did Powell Trigger A Tapering Tantrum In The Stock Market Today?

The fog of war is back. Oil prices jumped today after Israel attacked Iran's largest gas processing facility. Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatened to strike oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. Qatar then reported that Iranian missile strikes had damaged a key liquefied natural gas export facility.

Early this morning at 2:17 a.m. EST, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil was around $100. It rose to about $110 by 2:00 pm, just as the FOMC announced that the federal funds rate would remain unchanged. Thirty minutes later, Fed Chair Jerome Powell started his press conference. He was neither hawkish nor dovish. The odds of two widely expected rate cuts this year declined, while the odds of a rate hike increased, according to the Atlanta Fed’s Market Probability Tracker. We remain in the none-and-done camp.