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Oil prices stabilized today, so stock prices rose. We expected a pullback in the S&P 500 in early 2026. The S&P 500 fell 2.3% from its record high of 6987.60 on January 27 through Wednesday's close. It was up 0.77% today. Is the pullback over? If so, that's quite remarkable, suggesting investors believe Iran has lost the war and that oil will be flowing through the Strait of Hormuz very soon.
As of today, March 4, 2026, the data confirms that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has essentially collapsed. While the waterway is not actually closed, the threat of military action has created a de facto blockade. Iranian officials have stated they will "set ablaze" any ship attempting to cross the Strait, claiming total control of the passage. President Donald Trump offered to provide maritime insurance and US naval escorts yesterday.
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