We started writing our Market Call on Friday. Saturday morning, we woke up to the news of the joint military campaign by the US and Israel against Iran's evil Mullah regime. It appears that the two allies have complete air superiority. In a video statement posted to social media, US President Donald Trump vowed to destroy Iran's missile program and navy, and ensure that the country can "never" have a nuclear weapon. Iran's defenses were already badly degraded by last year's attacks by Israel and the US.
So we doubt that the Iranian regime will be able to block the Strait of Hormuz, as it has threatened to do in response to being attacked. If that’s the case, then increased production by the rest of OPEC is likely to limit any rise in oil prices due to a decline in Iran’s oil exports during the current conflict. Furthermore, the oil market might start to anticipate that if the Mullahs are toppled, then Iran will export even more oil.
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