Two Long-Distance Runners: Forrest Gump & The US Economy

In the movie “Forrest Gump,” Forrest is a long-distance runner. He crosses the United States five times before he finally decides he is "pretty tired" and stops. Forrest’s run lasted 3 years, 2 months, 14 days, and 16 hours. In the US, real GDP has been growing since the two-month pandemic lockdown recession ended in April 2020. So its run has lasted 5 years, 8 months, and 7 days so far. In our Roaring 2020s scenario, we expect the economy to continue growing through the end of the decade without a recession.

If so, then the current bull market in equities should continue through the end of the decade. For now, we can say that it started on October 12, 2022, and is still going strong. We are pleased to see that Dow Theory agrees with our upbeat outlook. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose to a new record high today, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) did the same yesterday (chart). Such mutual confirmations have signaled more economic growth ahead. The DJIA is likely to rise to 50,000 in coming weeks and could reach 70,000 by the end of the decade.