ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: January 5–9

With the holidays behind us, the first full trading week of the year is a busy one on the data front. The big focus, naturally, is on the December employment report. It's the first "full" release since the government shutdown caused data interruptions. It also marks a return to normalcy for investors eager to gauge how the Fed might proceed in the weeks ahead.

Recent data dented the view that the economy would stagger out of 2025. First, GDP grew a heady 4.3% y/y in Q3-2025. More recent data showed that initial unemployment insurance claims ended the year below the 200,000 mark. Overall, the data suggest that after surprising the bears in 2025, the economy appears on track for a solid 2026 as well.