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We believe the S&P 500 has been in a Santa Claus rally since it bottomed on November 20 at 6538 (chart). It is up 4.5% since then through Friday's close. Over the past 10 years, the average increase in the S&P 500 from the start of November through the end of the year has added 4.5 percentage points to its return.
The S&P 500 is up 16.2% ytd. It is on track to be the third consecutive year of double-digit gains (chart). We expect another earnings-led 10%+ increase in 2026 to 7700 for the S&P 500.
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