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The economy is growing despite anemic payroll employment gains. That can only happen if productivity growth accelerates and raises real wages enough to offset the weakness in employment. The question is whether productivity growth will continue to do so. It will in our Roaring 2020s scenario. The risk is that stronger real wages don't more than offset weaker employment, which would depress personal income and consumption. This is our primary concern in our 2026 outlook.
Today's batch of economic indicators on balance supports our Roaring 2020s narrative:
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