GDP IS HOT

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in Q3-2025 is 4.0% (saar) today, up from 3.9% on October 27 (chart). After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report on Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of Q3 real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 4.4% to 4.6%. Of course, the model is based solely on data compiled by private-sector sources because the federal government shutdown has cut off the supply of government-reported data since early October.

Before the shutdown, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the growth rate in Q2's real GDP up to 3.8%. Also before the shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised payroll employment down significantly, with the result that it rose just 29,000 per month on average during the three months through August. Together, this suggests that whenever the government reports productivity, its growth rates for Q2 and Q3 should be very strong.