ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 13 - 17

As the latest episode of the “Trump versus Xi” series airs this week, it's perhaps fitting that the shuttered US government won't be releasing most key data for September. What happened last month, after all, may matter little if the two biggest economies engage in a trade war. The impact of the 130% tariff that President Donald Trump threatens to impose on China, effective November 1, would be an immediate bad shock for GDP, employment, and inflation in both countries.  

Or not. Trump doesn't seem to know whether he will meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Seoul during the October 31-November 1 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Thankfully, both Xi—who just tightened curbs on rare earths exports—and Trump suggest negotiations aren't dead. Given the disastrous consequences, it is likely that talks will resume.