A Bubble In Bubble Fears?

We are raising our year-end S&P 500 target back to 7000. We started the year there, but lowered it earlier this year in response to Trump's Tariff Turmoil. We began raising our forecast again during the spring, when we concluded that the tariff issue would no longer impact the stock market by the end of the summer. We bet the resilience of the economy would boost S&P 500 earnings. So far, so good.

We think that the V-shaped stock market rebound since April 9 is discounting the economy's resilience, which reduces the odds of a recession. The market is now experiencing a slow-motion meltup. We attribute this to the Fed's rate cut on September 17 and expectations of one or more cuts before the end of the year.