ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 22 - 26

The week ahead will offer timely clues about both the American consumer and inflation. The economic releases this week might also influence financial market expectations about another Fed rate cut as soon as the October 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The federal funds futures market was expecting three 25bps rate cuts over the next six months last week before Thursday's upbeat initial unemployment claims cut the outlook for cuts to two (chart). We are back in the none-and-done camp for the rest of this year.

The main data releases include weekly jobless claims and personal income, which include the Fed's preferred inflation measure. Before then, August updates on existing and new home sales could be illuminating. The same can be said about August durable goods.