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On Tuesday at 10:00 a.m., the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish its preliminary benchmark revision for March 2025 employment data. This coincides with the release of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data for Q1-2025.
The preliminary revision will estimate how much the monthly payroll report overstated (or understated) actual job growth between April 2024 and March 2025. The final benchmark revision will be incorporated in the January 2026 employment report in February 2026. The revision is expected to range between -450,000 and -750,000, suggesting that productivity might be revised upward over this period. Furthermore, that would confirm widespread expectations of a Fed rate cut on September 17. The 10-year Treasury bond yield could fall below 4.00%, though not if the PPI and CPI inflation rates run hotter than expected later this week.
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