Market Call: What Could Possibly Go Wrong In September?

September has a long history of being a tough month for the stock market. This has been particularly true over the past decade, based on the average year-to-date percentage change in the S&P 500 during Septembers (chart). But when September was weak in the past, it often provided buying opportunities for year-end rallies.

So, might the latest top in the S&P 500 have been hit on Thursday, August 28, at 6501.86? Probably. Notably, Nvidia reported great earnings on Wednesday, yet the market's AI bellwether stock sold off on Thursday and Friday. Then again, profit-taking before a long holiday weekend isn't unusual. Furthermore, the bull-bear ratios remain relatively subdued, suggesting that any pullback in September is unlikely to be a correction or the start of a bear market (chart).