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We've acknowledged that the odds of a Fed rate cut have increased since the release of July's cold employment report and July's lukewarm CPI report so far this month. But we've also noted that more economic indicators will be released before the next FOMC meeting in mid-September. So we haven't abandoned our increasingly contrary view that "none-and-done in 2025" is still a likely outcome for the Fed's rate cuts. That's because we haven't lost our confidence in the resilience of the economy nor in the FOMC's commitment to lower the inflation rate to 2.0% y/y.
Today's PPI and unemployment claims reports confirmed our position. Consider the following:
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