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On Friday, President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on all of America's trading partners. Friday's employment report was shockingly weak. So the President fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) because, he said, she "RIGGED" the data. On Friday, Fed Governor Adriane Kugler resigned, allowing Trump to more quickly appoint someone who could replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair next May. On Friday, Trump said on his social media feed that he had "ordered two nuclear submarines" to be repositioned in response to online threats from Russia's former president, Dmitri Medvedev, a rare case of potential nuclear escalation between the superpowers.
Gold soared. Stocks tanked. Yields fell. The odds of a recession rose from 12% to 17% according to Polymarket.com. The odds of a recession remain low because the odds of Fed rate cuts have increased. According to the CME FedWatch, the odds of a Fed rate cut in September are up to 80.3%.
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