ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 28 - August 1

This is a big week on the monetary policy front, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of Canada all holding policy meetings. Naturally, the main event will be the Federal Open Market Committee’s widely expected decision (Wed) to leave the federal funds rate unchanged. We are among those expecting no change. However, we do expect that Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference (Wed) will be relatively dovish, raising the odds of a September rate cut. Nevertheless, we remain in the none-and-done camp in 2025 for now.

On Friday, the markets will receive a highly anticipated update on US employment. We expect the data to confirm, yet again, that the economy remains resilient. By the way, Friday is also August 1, the drop-dead day for many trade deals with the US.