Uncertainty & Breadth

At the end of last year, the words "uncertain" and "uncertainty" appeared 12 times in the minutes of the December 17-18 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Those words appeared more often during this year's meetings. The June 17-18 meeting minutes released today included those words 28 times. During his presser, Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned the two words 19 times.

Most of the uncertainty faced by Fed officials has to do with Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT). Collectively, they are leaning toward lowering the federal funds rate. But they are in no hurry to do so since they are worried that TTT might still boost inflation.