The week ahead is starting with another tariff whiplash. On April 2, President Donald Trump imposed hefty reciprocal tariffs on America's trading partners but postponed them for 90 days on April 9. On Friday, he threatened new tariffs on the European Union, Apple Inc., and perhaps Samsung and other tech giants to be named later. But on Sunday, he postponed Friday's June 1 tariff of 50% on the EU until July 9. So much for liberation from Trump's Tariff Turmoil (TTT). All of which gives this week's data an air of relative irrelevance as the White House zigs, zags, and zigs almost daily.
This will make upcoming speeches by Fed officials extra newsworthy, offering insight into how they think TTT might impact monetary policy. And in the aftermath of Moody's downgrading the US to "Aaa" on May 16, financial markets will pay close attention to events on Capitol Hill. Namely, how the deficit-bloating "Big, Beautiful Bill" that the House passed last week lands with Senate Republicans, as well as the Bond Vigilantes.
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