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The good news is that the Magnificent-7 are still magnificent. Three of them (Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft) beat earnings expectations for Q1. We've been arguing that while AI may or may not make money for the providers of Large Language Models, the result will be more demand for cloud computing. That should be good news for at least four of the Mag-7.
The bad news is that recent economic reports have boosted the probability of a recession in recent days, according to Polymarket.com (chart). Our subjective probability of a recession remains at 45%. Let's review the latest relevant economic indicators:
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