ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: April 21-25

This week's data are likely to confirm that consumer sentiment (Fri) remained sour this month. The housing market is unlikely to have thawed last month given that mortgage rates remain high and building costs will increase with tariffs and a shortage of immigrant labor. Even some incremental good news on durable goods orders (Thu) would likely be chalked up to tariff front-running, especially as we expect regional Fed M-PMIs (Tue & Thu) to show that output expectations are falling fast.

Stock prices are down sharply today because of President Donald Trump's attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who won't resign and probably can't be fired. The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates unless a significant financial crisis emerges.