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The economic week ahead will provide updates on the goods-producing sector, consumer spending, and inflation. Macroeconomic data may be drowned out by more explosive volatility in the financial markets attributable to Trump's Nitro Tariffs (TNT). In addition, the Q1 earnings season has started, and company managements are likely to provide lots of "we-have-no-idea" guidance as a result of TNT.
In any event, incoming data may signal that the nascent rolling recovery in manufacturing and industrial production could be blown up by TNT unless President Donald Trump continues to pivot toward postponing tariffs while negotiating tariff deals. On the other hand, we are expecting an upside surprise for March retail sales.
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